The tellurium market has changed substantially during the recent decade. Once characterized by relatively modest demand and depressed prices, this small but strategically important metals market is increasingly influenced by cadmium telluride (CdTe) solar manufacturing, concentrated supply, and trade restrictions.
Tellurium remains unusual because most supply is not produced from dedicated mines. It is recovered primarily as a by-product of electrolytic copper refining, particularly from copper anode slimes. This structural dependence limits the industry’s ability to increase production rapidly when demand accelerates.
Solar PV Now Dominates Tellurium Demand
The strongest transformation has occurred in the photovoltaics application. According to the USGS, CdTe solar cells accounted for an estimated 70% of global tellurium consumption in 2025. Thermoelectric applications represented another 15%, metallurgy – 10%, and other applications approximately 5%.
Expansion of CdTe manufacturing could reinforce this trend. A leading U.S. producer of CdTe solar modules opened its fifth domestic manufacturing facility in 2025 and expects U.S. manufacturing capacity to reach as much as 14 GW annually when the new facility reaches full production.
China’s Dominance Creates a Supply-Side Risk
China has become the central force in global tellurium supply. In 2024, the country produced an estimated 750 tonnes of refined tellurium, representing approximately 75% of overall global output. Global refinery production was estimated at around 980 tonnes.
Supply conditions tightened significantly in February 2025 when China introduced export controls covering tellurium-related products. Exporters subsequently faced licensing and end-user verification requirements.
The effect was particularly visible in Europe, where restricted availability contributed to an 84% increase in the average tellurium price, from USD 81.54/kg in 2024 to an estimated USD 150/kg in 2025. U.S. warehouse prices increased 60%, reaching approximately USD 120/kg.
Tellurium Supply Growth Remains Limited
The central challenge for the tellurium market is that higher prices cannot immediately generate substantial new supply. Production depends heavily on copper-refining technology and the economics of recovering tellurium from intermediate materials. Recycling offers another potential source, particularly from end-of-life CdTe modules, although current volumes remain limited because much of the installed solar fleet has not yet reached retirement.
To Conclude:
Tellurium has evolved from a niche metalloid into an increasingly strategic material for the energy transition. Solar applications now dominate demand, China controls a large proportion of refined supply, and the 2025 price surge demonstrated the market’s sensitivity to trade restrictions.
Future market performance will depend heavily on CdTe solar expansion, Chinese export policy, copper-refining output, and the development of alternative recovery and recycling routes. These factors leave tellurium exposed to supply disruptions, but also create strong incentives for producers and consumers to diversify supply chains.
Find a detailed analysis of the global tellurium market performance, trends, and prospects in the in-demand research report “Tellurium: 2026 World Market Review and Forecast to 2035“.