The global ethanol market will continue to demonstrate a steady positive dynamics driven by a roster of factors. Such factors include the following: (1) an upsurge in environmental concerns and coming realization that it is time to take urgent steps, which was vividly witnessed at the Paris Climate Change Conference; (2) state support rendered to ethanol via various national-level programs, initiatives and standards, like Renewable Energy Directive (RED) of the European Union, U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) or Renewable Fuels Regulations (Canada); (3) growing interest in ethanol from the world of big business shown by auto giants like Chrysler, Ford, General Motors, etc (e.g. rising fleet of flex-fuel vehicles or FFVs – almost 18 mln FFVs on the US roads in 2014), independent petroleum refiners/blenders (e.g. Valero Energy Corporation), chemical multinationals (DuPont) or vertically/highly integrated companies (e.g. COFCO or Poet, LLC); (4) the constant stream of innovations and advanced ethanol products in the ethanol sector (e.g. commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol that may mitigate some ethanol limitations, which are often far-fetched by oil companies); (5) very sound pricing policy with respect to ethanol, which remains one of the cheapest fuels on the market, though it must be fully admitted that fuel ethanol is always under multiple pressures from crop price fluctuations, agricultural productivity, weather conditions, conventional fuel environment, among other influences; (6) a call to universally increase the ethanol fraction in fuel blends to 20-40% over the so-called “blend wall”, since this step might provide massive benefits with respect to higher octane value, environmental friendliness and vehicle efficiency.
Major ethanol producers and their capacity in 2014
The synergy of these factors will result in the robust growth of the global and regional ethanol markets. The ethanol market will grow at a healthy pace of over 6% in the short- and mid-term perspective. By the end of the decade, the global ethanol capacity will exceed 87 mln tons. Top 5 ethanol-producing countries will remain to be the USA, Brazil, China, Canada and Thailand.
More information on the ethanol market can be found in insightful research report “Ethanol (EtOH) 2015 World Market Outlook and Forecast up to 2019”.